“If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs and blaming it on you”
Excerpt from IF by Rudyard Kipling
It would be an understatement to say that this has been an unpredictable, crazy and extremely negative election cycle. The good news is that we have only 5 days left! Additionally, America has been through tough election cycles in the past including hanging chads (Bush-Gore 2000), campaigns with divisive rhetoric (a la Game Change/2008), and even during a civil war (Lincoln 1860). Cooler heads shall prevail.
The media is pitching the story of a horse race and tightening polls. Yes, national polls are tightening. Yet, that’s not how the Electoral College works. A presidential candidate must win 270 of 538 electoral college votes that are granted based on popular vote by state. Organizations like FiveThirtyEight and the Princeton Election Consortium provide predictions derived from running simulations of state polls weighted by accuracy and sample size.
I am personally a registered Independent and not backing either the Democratic or Republican candidate ( I am personally no fan of either). Nonetheless, numbers are numbers. Hillary Clinton’s probability of success has decreased since FBI Director Comey’s no-investigation, investigation news. Yet, she is still greatly favored to win on November 8th. We can all breathe a sigh of relief on November 9 and enjoy at least 2 years of campaign-free life.
The US election cycle is 596 days long or approx. 2 years from the primaries to national election day. A good idea may be to follow the lead of countries like the United Kingdom (139 days), Canada (78 days) or Japan (12 days by law) to limit the election cycle. Check out Sheryl Crow’s Make It Short petition. At the end of the day, we have the democracy that we accept (or demand). It’s time that we demanded a lot more from politicians (and each other).